“If our species is to stagger through another millennium, we need to get better at thinking about how we think—and conducting high-stakes debates more intelligently. This book lays out, with superb clarity, the path forward. PHILIP E. TETLOCK , author of Superforecasting Third Millennium Thinking offers a road map for making more effective decisions in an increasingly complex and noisy world. If you could only read one book about how to think more clearly, make it this one. ANNIE DUKE , author of Thinking in Bets ? ! A physicist, a philosopher, and a psychologist walk into a book, and mix an inviting cocktail about how to think through big problems and make effective decisions in a Third Millennium age of overwhelming, complex, and contradictory information. A must-read for anyone who needs to make expert judgments without being experts themselves. DAVID DUNNING , professor of psychology at the University of Michigan and discoverer of the Dunning-Kruger Effect A Nobel laureate physicist, an influential philosopher, and an expert on legal psychology reveal how you can use the tools of science in everyday life. In a world filled with uncertainty and fractured by polarization, this guide to clear thinking couldnt come at a better time. ADAM GRANT , author of Think Again and Hidden Potential Marvelous. LEONARD MLODINOW , author of Subliminal A wonderful book for anyone interested in how best to navigate our complex world of information overload. Engagingly and informatively, it emphasizes how processes used in the practice of science can provide widely applicable tools for approaching individual and collective decision-making. A truly valuable resource for taking on the challenges facing our species and the planet. ELIZABETH BLACKBURN , PhD, Nobel Prize winner and coauthor of The Telomere Effec t A model of clear thinking and a terrific discussion of how to use logic and evidence to solve the hardest problems. This might just be the cure for what ails us. CASS R. SUNSTEIN , Robert Walmsley University Professor, Harvard University, and author of Decisions about Decisions a philosopher, walk into a book... ... and present the tools and frameworks that scientists have developed to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. ? ! Amazon Barnes & Noble Independent TBD IMAGE CREDITS: AUTHOR PHOTOGRAPHS: JON SCHAINKER (SAUL PERLMUTTER); RORY CAMPBELL (JOHN CAMPBELL); AUDREY Mac COUN (ROBERT MacCOUN); JACKET DESIGN BY KEITH HAYES; JACKET ART © SHUTTERSTOCK IMAGES; BLANK WHITE BOOK COVER: IMAGE BY VECTONAUTA ON FREEPIK A physicist, and a psychologist Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, a primer on how to think critically, make sound decisions, and solve problems—individually and collectively—using scientists tricks of the trade. In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical advice? Does that article on GMOs even show what the authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different experts on climate? In Third Millennium Thinking, a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks that scientists have developed to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle problems both big and small. Readers will learn: How to achieve a ground-level understanding of the facts of the modern world How to chart a course through a profusion of possibilities How to work together to take on the challenges we face today And much more Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense. Links to Educational Material THIRD MILLENNIUM THINKING D e c i s i o n s , D e c i s i o n s , D e c i s i o n s C h a p t e r 1 M a k i n g T h i n g s H a p p e n Nobel Prize Outreach High School Course: Scientific Thinking for All: A Toolkit https://www.nobelprize.org/scientific- thinking-for-all/ University Course: Sense and Sensibility and Science https://sensesensibilityscience.berkeley.edu/